PESTLE Insights: Iran – Macroeconomic Outlook Report

Mining, manufacturing and utilities contributed 30.9% to the gross value added (GVA) in 2017, followed by financial intermediation, real estate and business activities (16.1%), and wholesale, retail and hotels (14.2%). In nominal terms, the three sectors are expected to grow by 13.4%, 12.7% and 12.7%, respectively, in 2018

In 2018, around US$59.5 mn has been invested in the development of infrastructure facilities covering an area of 240 hectares near IKIA, the main international airport of Iran.

Scope

– Four major provinces generate around 47.3% of the GDP of Iran and are home to 36.7% of the country’s population, as of 2014

– In November 2018, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) took several measures to finalize the re-imposition of sanctions against Iran as a response to US President Trump’s (May 8, 2018) decision to terminate the US’ participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

– As part of the five-year economic plan (2017-2022), the Government of Iran predicts an average of US$30 bn of foreign financing each year along with US$15 bn foreign direct investments and US$20 bn foreign investment through local partners.

Reasons to buy

- Macroeconomic Outlook Report identifies the potentials of the country as an investment destination by analyzing the political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental (PESTLE) structure.

- PESTLE Insights provides 360 degree view of the economy which can be used as a strategic tool to understand the market dynamics, business potentials and direction of operations

- Along with providing the country’s snapshot, the report captures the risk factors pertaining to the macroeconomic risks, political environment, legal environment, demographic and social structure effectiveness, technology & infrastructure and natural and geographic aspects that might impact business.

- This report also highlights key clusters/cities which contribute significantly to the country GDP and population along with major companies’ presence in these areas.

Companies mentioned

National Iranian Drilling Co.

Saipa

Abadan Oil refining Co

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Table of Contents 2

List of Exhibits 3

Did you Know? 4

Country Highlights 5

Country Snapshot 7

PESTLE Insights 22

Political Landscape 23

Economic Landscape 24

Social Landscape 31

Technological Landscape 34

Legal Landscape 37

Environmental Landscape 38

Outlook 39

List of Figures

List of Figures

Exhibit 1: Iran’s Performance in the Country Risk Analysis in Comparison to Middle East and North Africa and the World 11

Exhibit 2: Performance Overview (Score: 1-100) 11

Exhibit 3: Broad Categories and Weights behind the Index 12

Exhibit 4: TEPIX Index 14

Exhibit 5: Key Sectors Contribution to the Economy 15

Exhibit 6: FDI Flows Inward and Outward, 2014-2017 17

Exhibit 7: FDI Stock Inward and Outward, 2014-2017 17

Exhibit 8: Tax Holidays by Sector 19

Exhibit 9: Key Infrastructure Indicators 21

Exhibit 10: Real GDP and Household Consumption Growth Rate 25

Exhibit 11: Real GDP Growth Rate Comparison (2017) 25

Exhibit 12: Export, Import and Trade Balance 26

Exhibit 13: Current Account Balance 26

Exhibit 14: Top Three Commodity Exports, % of Total Exports, 2013-2017 27

Exhibit 15: Mineral Fuels, Mineral Oils and Products of Their Distillation, % Share in World’s Total, 2017 27

Exhibit 16: Interest Rates 29

Exhibit 17: Exchange Rate 29

Exhibit 18: Public Finance 30

Exhibit 19: General Government Debt 30

Exhibit 20: Employment/Unemployment 32

Exhibit 21: Average Annual Wages 32

Exhibit 22: Labour Cost Index 32

Exhibit 23: Rural/Urban Share of Total Population 33

Exhibit 24: Age-group Share of Total Population 33

Exhibit 25: Gender Split 33

Exhibit 26: Internet Users % of Total Population, Mobile and Broadband Penetration Rate, 2017 35

Exhibit 27: Number of Patents Granted Per Million Population, 2018 36

Exhibit 28: Business Enterprise R&D Expenditure by Source of Funds, 2012-16 36

Exhibit 29: Doing Business in Iran 2019 37

Exhibit 30: Corruption Perception Index (Rankings) 2017 37

Exhibit 31: CO2 Emissions 38

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