Renewable Energy Transition – After COVID-19 Oil and Gas face accelerated decline

The impact of COVID-19 on oil and gas demand has drastically devalued the assets of the big International Oil Companies (IOCs), whilst renewable electricity generation has been relatively unaffected. Renewables are likely to see accelerated growth in light of green COVID-19 recovery packages, in a year that was already expected to be pivotal for electric vehicles. Oil and gas producers which were previously taking only tentative steps to integrate renewables into their business models could soon be taking more serious strides in that direction.

Key Highlights

– Prior to COVID-19, the global energy transition presented a dilemma for IOCs and natural gas producers. Its inevitability had been clear for some time, but oil and gas assets continued to promise huge profits. Now the impact of COVID-19 on oil and gas demand has drastically devalued those assets, whilst renewable electricity generation has been relatively unaffected.

– Big IOCs were already headed towards renewable transitions, but these were proceeding extremely slowly. The devaluation of their assets is likely to be permanent, chiefly due to the long-term impact of the pandemic on oil and gas demand from transportation.

– Debt is a historic issue for the oil and gas industry as a whole, particularly outside of the IOCs in smaller independent companies, and particularly in the world’s largest market, the US. This is another problem which is only getting worse for the industry in the harsh reality of the pandemic. Meanwhile, renewables have continued to surge ahead, retaining their leading position in the power sector.

– This sector will become increasingly important to oil and gas companies in the mid- to long-term reality of electric vehicle growth, and their weakening position within it brings further bad news. IOCs are key to the global energy transition. Their capacity for R&D makes them important influencers and drivers of technological innovation, and their dependence on investor sentiment means they can be more easily influenced than National Oil Companies (NOCs). Due to the profitability of their oil and gas assets, IOCs have been quite slow to respond to the energy transition, despite its obvious implications for their businesses and increasingly widespread endorsement by governments. However, 2019 and 2020 have marked some significant steps in this direction, as the pressure on IOCs has mounted in the wake of high-profile and worldwide climate protests.

Scope

– See how the transition away from oil & gas is changing the industry

– Learn how COVID-19 has accelerated the transition

– Understand what changes are happening and what players are changing their offering

Reasons to buy

- What players have started to drop oil & gas offerings?

- How has COVID-19 accelerated the transition and why?

- What might this mean for the future and is the oil and gas industry in trouble?

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. OVERVIEW

1.1. Catalyst

1.2. Summary

2. IOCS HAVE FEWER REASONS TO DELAY THEIR OWN TRANSITIONS

2.1. IOCs’ business models were already shifting slowly towards transition, but slowly

2.2. IOCs’ fossil fuel assets have become less profitable during the pandemic

3. THE DEVALUATION OF OIL AND GAS COMPANIES’ ASSETS COULD BE PERMANENT

3.1. The drop in demand will be long-term

3.2. Debt will become an even greaterissue

4. THE LONG-TERM VIABILITY OF RENEWABLES WILL BECOME THEIR MAIN ADVANTAGE OVER FOSSIL

4.1. Renewables will continue to lead growth in the power sector

4.1.1. Renewables are leading deals activity while oil and gas majors amass more debt

4.1.2. Renewables are beating fossil fuels on cost-effectiveness

4.2. Transport is becoming more important to oil and gas, making EVs a growing threat

4.2.1. Purchase incentives will only increase after COVID-19

4.2.2. Manufacturers were already looking to turn away from oil and gas in 2020

5. APPENDIX

5.1. Abbreviations and acronyms

5.2. Sources

5.3. Further reading

6. ASK THE ANALYST

7. ABOUT MARKETLINE

List of Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1: IEA Analysis of variable renewable energy share over demand in selected countries and states

Figure 2: Total value ($m) of debt offerings for US oil & gas companies 2016-2020

Figure 3: Total number of deals in fossil fuels and solar PV & wind sectors for 2020 YTD (Q3 data as of 29/07/2020)

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