President Buhari - An uncertain economic record

President Buhari assumed power in Nigeria promising to achieve much in the way of reforming the oil extraction industry, radically increase power generation, solve currency problems and improve prospects as a whole. Now in power for nearly 20 months, sufficient time has elapsed for an assessment of the success, or otherwise, of the president and his government in the economic context.

Key Questions Answered

- What degree of success has Buhari had in developing the economy?

- Will reforms be successful?

- Can the crises gripping the economy be solved?

Scope

- Reforming the structure of the NNPC is a wise move but there are problems with the replacement which could make some issues worse. Whilst some have concerns, the ‘Seven Big Wins’ strategy is a coherent attempt at understanding the wider problems the government must confront in the oil industry.

- Imposing a de facto ban on a list of imported goods coming in from neighbouring countries in the hope of developing domestic industry in those sectors is a bad move and one which has been tried several times before, failing every time. Such policies do not help the chronic shortage of dollars in the economy, making the situation worse.

- Without major reform of the power generating network in Nigeria, the economy cannot grow. The level of power available to businesses is tiny compared to other African states and must be corrected for other policies to work as intended. The Buhari record in this area of policy is patchy; some significant successes such as the Mambilla Dam will ease the unreliability of the power network.

Reasons to buy

- Examines the economic record of President Buahri to date.

- Assesses the action undertaken in the oil industry.

- Looks at the foreign exchange crises.

- Examines the power generation shortage.

- Assesses the impact of terrorism on economic development.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Overview 2

Catalyst 2

Summary 2

Oil industry remains in a parlous condition - some victories have been won 6

‘Seven Big ...

Table of Contents

Overview 2

Catalyst 2

Summary 2

Oil industry remains in a parlous condition - some victories have been won 6

‘Seven Big Wins’ strategy focuses on the immediate needs of Nigerian oil 6

Breaking up Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation creates a new set of problems 7

De facto import bans and dollar shortages: Buhari must do better 10

Imposing de facto import bans to preserve currency reserves was wrong policy at the wrong time 10

Dollar shortages are harming the economy and more needs to be done in response 12

Going against political populism, ending fuel subsidies was a wise move 13

Buhari promised to exponentially increase power supply - not enough has happened 14

Nigeria is not producing enough power to stand still, let alone develop the economy 14

Finalizing the Mambilla Dam is important, but government action has been patchy 15

Privatizing the Transmission Company of Nigeria will help 16

Buhari forced Boko Haram into retreat but much more work lies ahead 17

Pushed back but not beaten: Buhari’s failure to defeat Boko Haram could halt oil development in north 17

Buhari’s failure to end attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in Niger Delta have widespread ramifications 18

Conclusion 20

Buhari’s economic failures outweigh his successes 20

Appendix 21

Sources 21

Further Reading 21

Ask the analyst 22

About MarketLine 22

Disclaimer 22

List of Tables

List of Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1: Oil Production (tb/d) in Nigeria 6

Figure 2: Destination of Nigerian oil exports 7

Figure 3: Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu 8 ...

List of Figures

Figure 1: Oil Production (tb/d) in Nigeria 6

Figure 2: Destination of Nigerian oil exports 7

Figure 3: Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu 8

Figure 4: Nigerian imports in billions of naira 10

Figure 5: Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP) 11

Figure 6: Nigerian GDP 2000-2015 12

Figure 7: Naira exchange rate to dollar August 2016 to February 17, 2017 12

Figure 8: Power generated in megawatts during April 2016 14

Figure 9: Construction of the Mambilla Dam 16

Figure 10: Boko Haram soldiers 17

Figure 11: Niger Delta Avengers 18

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