Eastern Europe and Russian Natural Gas: The movement away from Gazprom

The supply of natural gas to Eastern Europe has long been the preserve of Russian state-backed giant Gazprom, but their decade’s long domination of energy supply and heavy influence in the internal machinations of former Soviet countries is now under threat. Since the early promise of vast shale gas riches evaporated amid poor early drilling results, the movement away from dependency upon Russian gas has gained impetus from the growth of Liquid Natural Gas, the development of reverse-flow pipelines and new regulations from the European Union. The combination has given several Eastern European states far improved deals and greatly improved their political bargaining power. Whilst the Russian supply cannot be directly replaced, movement away from one source of natural gas has occurred and is likely to gather pace.

Scope

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Reasons to buy

What is the present state-of-affairs of gas supply in Eastern Europe?

What means are there to reduce dependency on Gazprom?

What progress has there been in Eastern Europe?

Companies mentioned

None

Table of Contents

Overview

Catalyst

Summary

Eastern European dependency on Russian gas

Gazprom’s near complete control

High expectations for shale gas in Eastern Europe evaporate

A Pipedream: Regional Gas Supplies

Once the great new hope, Polish shale now diminished

Optimism for Lithuania and Romania evaporates as Ukrainian turmoil continues

Bulgarian conventional supply

From Gazprom to LNG: Diversifying Gas supply

LNG will help Eastern Europe, but it is only part of the solution

LNG helps wean Poland off Russian Gas

Lithuania LNG deal diversifies supply

The long-term future of LNG is far from certain Eastern Europe must take note

Interconnecting pipelines diminishes Gazprom control

Still no clear alternative supplies in many countries

European Union gas liberalization

Third Party Package

Nord Stream 2 a step backwards for Eastern Europe

Conclusion

Eastern Europe now less dependent on Russian gas

Appendix

Definitions

Sources

Further Reading

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List of Tables

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List of Figures

Figure 1: Percentage of natural gas imported from Russia during 2014

Figure 2: Predicted Shale Gas Reserves in Poland

Figure 3: Predicted Shale Gas Reserves in Ukraine

Figure 4: Bulgarian Gas Fields

Figure 5: Breakdown of Global LNG Supply

Figure 6: Imports of Gazprom Natural Gas

Figure 7: FSRU Independence, a Floating Storage Regasification Unit

Figure 8: Central Eastern Europe Gas Supply Flow

Figure 9: U.S Vice President Joe Biden in Latvia

Figure 10: Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Route

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